“He who wins a battle makes many calculations before the battle is fought; he who loses makes few calculations beforehand.” ⚔️
Sun Wu (Sun Tzu), a legendary military strategist from the State of Qi during China’s Spring and Autumn period and the author of Eastern antiquity’s greatest military treatise ‘The Art of War’, played a decisive role in helping King Helü of Wu defeat Chu and establish hegemony. Instead of relying on reckless bravery or emotional fervor, he was a legendary strategist who built winning grounds through cold, objective analysis.
Before mobilizing troops, Sun Wu always performed ‘Miaosuan’ (temple pre-calculation), sitting in the ancestral temple to precisely compare and calculate the strength of his forces versus the enemy across five objective variables: the Way (moral alignment/purpose), Heaven (timing/climate), Earth (terrain/distance), the General (leadership/wisdom), and Law (organization/discipline). Not a single soldier moved until odds were quantitatively proven. As recorded in Sima Qian’s ‘Records of the Grand Historian’, pre-calculation was a solemn cognitive simulation for Sun Tzu to block optimism bias driven by desire and erase unexpected failure risks in advance.
In today’s post, we introduce the neuroscientific principles of Prospective Hindsight and Optimism Bias suppression embedded in Sun Tzu’s Miaosuan routine.
Historical & Academic Evidence
This content is based on Sima Qian's 'Records of the Grand Historian' Vol. 65
1. Pre-mortem Simulation Effects Induced by Prospective Hindsight and Optimism Bias Suppression
Quantitatively checking failure possibilities and risk factors before launching a project activates neuroscientific mechanisms of ‘Prospective Hindsight’ and ‘Pre-mortem’ analysis.
The human brain easily succumbs to optimism bias (Optimism Bias) and emotional impulses when initiating new endeavors. However, quantitatively simulating risk across five core variables beforehand suppresses reckless impulses in the amygdala (Amygdala) and activates the prefrontal cortex’s (Prefrontal Cortex) executive functions and high-level risk assessment circuits, dramatically elevating decision-making win rates.
2. 3-Step Practical Routine for Modern Professionals
Set 5 Quantitative Evaluation Variables (Purpose, Timing, Environment, Capability, System) Before Project Execution
Define core variables using modern standards derived from the Way, Heaven, Earth, General, and Law (Goal Purpose, Market/Timing, Resources/Environment, Execution Capability, Process/Discipline).
Objectively Score Conditions of Yourself vs. Enemy/Situation Across 5 Axes
Exclude emotion and assign objective scores (1–10) or metrics to evaluate strengths and risk vulnerabilities visually.
Execute Action Once Winning Odds Are Proven After Pre-mortem Scenario Check
Assume the project has already failed to proactively patch potential bottlenecks, and decisively initiate execution once quantitative winning odds are verified.
3. Guard Against Analysis Paralysis and Focus on Quantitative Indicators
The essence of Sun Tzu’s Miaosuan routine is not falling into ‘Analysis Paralysis’ through endless worry or indecision, but clearly benchmarking winning odds using five objective criteria. Set a deadline, complete your objective data-driven quantitative check, and move into action immediately.
📌 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Should I use the 5-variable pre-calculation routine even for minor daily tasks? ▼
You do not need elaborate Miaosuan for every minor task. However, for high-stakes decisions like major projects, investments, or career shifts, taking 5 minutes to run a checklist across the 5 criteria (Goal, Timing, Environment, Capability, System) effectively prevents disastrous failures.
How should I respond if pre-calculation yields low odds of success? ▼
Sun Tzu avoided reckless battles when odds were low, choosing to fortify weaknesses or wait. The true purpose of Miaosuan is to strengthen low-scoring variables (e.g., resource gaps, systemic flaws) until winning criteria are met, or strategically pivot away if risk remains excessive.
